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Fantasy land
Views: 532
Let’s play devils advocate. The teams we can still get above in the league (let’s assume we win our final 3 games), their remaining fixtures, my guess at the outcomes and therefore their final points tally.
Swindon
Win v Basingstoke
Win v Sholing
Draw v Winchester
Total points - 50
Hayes
Lose v Gosport
Lose v Salisbury
Win v Plymouth
Lose v Bracknell
Total points - 45
Hanwell
Draw v Sholing
Draw v Dorchester
Win v Plymouth
Lose v Hungerford
Lose v Salisbury
Total points - 47
Sholing
Draw v Hanwell
Lose v Walton
Win v Hendon
Lose v Swindon
Draw v Tiverton
Total points - 47
Tiverton
Lose v Chesham
Draw v Dorchester
Draw v Winchester
Lose v Harrow
Draw v Sholing
Total points - 43
Plymouth
Lose v Salisbury
Win v Didcot
Lose v POole
Lose v Hanwell
Lose v Walton
Lose v Hayes
Lose v Totton
Lose v Beaconsfield
Total points - 45
That would have the table looking like this;
15 - Swindon (50)
16 - Hanwell (47)
17 - Sholing (47)
18 - Hayes (45)
—————————
19 - Plymouth (45)
20 - Harrow (45)
21 - Tiverton (43)
22 - Didcot
So in this scenario, to stay up, we would need Hayes to lose out or just take a draw v Plymouth. That would drop them to 43. We would move up to 19th. We would then need Sholing or Hanwell to drop a win. Maybe our friends at Hendon can beat them or Plymouth have a better run of form than my prediction and also beat Hanwell.
I did say it was a fantasy land but whilst there’s a possibility there’s hope. If we are to survive on merit, I think it will be at the expense of Tiverton, Hayes and Sholing. I strongly doubt that though, however, I can see us getting another 4 points and putting us on a decent points per game ratio for any reprieves that might happen.
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Re: Fantasy land - UPDATE
Views: 431
Okay so another win for Boro. 3 wins on the bounce in the league. When did that last happen? Disappointingly Hayes won which basically puts them out of touch for us, unless they lose their next fixtures 9-0 each. Same goes for Sholing. We can no longer catch Swindon. Despite our win, things actually have become a little harder, mostly because Hayes won.
Here’s the remaining teams we can overtake and what we need to happen, assuming we win our last 2 games.
Tiverton
Lose v Dorchester
Lose v Winchester
Lose v Harrow
Lose v Sholing
Total points - 43
(Note they could get 1 draw not vs us, but unless there is 18 goal swing, they can’t get 2 draws).
Plymouth
Lose v POole
Draw v Hanwell
Lose v Walton
Lose v Totton
Lose v Hayes
Lose v Beaconsfield
Total points - 43
(Note they must draw v Hanwell and could pick up one more point only)
Hanwell
Draw v Plymouth
Lose v Hungerford
Lose v Salisbury
Total points - 43
(Note they could pick up another point only)
18 - Harrow (45)
——————————-
19 - Hanwell (43)
20 - Plymouth (43)
21 - Tiverton (43)
22 - Didcot
Edited by RedHarrow at 19:25:32 on 13th April 2024
Edited by RedHarrow at 19:26:50 on 13th April 2024
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Re: Fantasy land - UPDATE
Views: 387
Great win today! This seems like mission impossible! Earlier in the season I'd accepted that we just aren't good enough for this level anymore and will deserve our relegation. However, things have changed and it seems we very much are good enough for this level. We've already got more points than what we ended up with last season. It's such a shame that it took us so long to get going this season.
Anyway, there's still hope! It's a real problem that Hanwell have to play Plymouth. What a let down Chesham were today. I bet they wouldn't have lost that game if they had had something to play for. Credit to Didcot though who came from behind to beat Plymouth. Didcot are quite a likeable club.
All we can do is hope results go for us next week on Tuesday and Thursday and whatever happens in those games, we have to beat Tiverton.
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 411
This is far from the first time we’ve seen Boro “relegated” but the club have had Houdini style ability to avoid relegation so I never assume anything until the next season’s placements are announced.
It’s why every point matters even if we finish in the bottom four. It’s not just pride, it’s a potentially a matter of survival.
That said, whether we go down (possibly by choice) or stay up by the skin of our teeth the question remains what next? Constant struggles in step 3? Rebuilding or perhaps just plateauing in Step 4?
The main thing of course is that the club survives.
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 493
Good work harrowred!
We're in a situation now where we just have to win our last three games and hope for the best. If we do manage to win our last three, I'm very confident we will finish higher than 21st.
Parkway play Salisbury tonight. Parkway will be knackered so Salisbury should win. We then play Salisbury on Saturday afternoon and hopefully by the second half, Salisbury will be knackered and hopefully we can take advantage. The hope is that Parkway continue to lose even against Didcot.
At the moment I'm not trying to think too much beyond the Salisbury game. We just have to beat them and no matter what happens in the other games, we'd still be in with a chance of safety (or 19th at the very least).
If I were giving the team talk, I'd be telling the players how this is a much bigger game for us than it is for them (Though obviously Salisbury will want to finish as high as possible to guarantee home games in the playoffs). I'd be telling them that this is do or die for us. A win keeps our chances of survival alive. Salisbury will have bigger matches to come in the coming weeks whereas this is our biggest match! Our cup final! And take advantage of them in the second half due to their match on Thursday night. Let them be the ones chasing the game in the second half (obviously we need to be leading for that to happen.)
Our form over the past 13 games is W5 D4 L4 PTS 19
Salisbury have 21 points from their last 13 games. There's little between the two sides and throw in the fact they're playing tonight, we have the advantage!
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 470
Its worth noting the 4th bottom side will not be relegated.
With Marske & Nuneaton folding during the season there are two reprieves already guaranteed.
On points per game average across the 16 'relegated ' clubs at step 3, 4th bottom in our division will definitely stay up.
Apparently other reprieves due to ground & financial issues are very likely too.
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 421
With Marske and Nuneaton folding, are they not just bottom and relegated from their respective divisions? So it would be one less relegation place for all other teams in their league. Not sure it would affect our reprieve? We would need some teams to fold/take voluntary relegation from our league post season for it to benefit us?
I think if a team from the leagues above folded, then a PPG reprieve would be in play for any team finishing ‘top’ of their relegation zone?
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 452
That's what I was thinking. A few months ago, I posted on here that with Nuneaton and Marske folding, surely that means 4th bottom (in two of the four step 3 divisions) would be reprieved
A short while later I realised that that probably won't be the case as it will be three teams going down from those two leagues plus Nuneaton and Marske so that wouldn't have any effect on us.
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 465
Yep think that’s how it going to work. But as mentioned, Hendon and Hungerford could both be in trouble financially. There are probably others too. One comment at a match recently was the thinking that only bottom will go down this year and everyone else will have a chance of a reprieve due to voluntary relegations. Points per game will definitely have a say and our league is the strongest in that sense. 2 more wins from our last 3 games will definitely put us in a good position for a reprieve if done that way. However, would the club want it?
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 460
That's very useful to know, so now we have even more reason to win our remaining three games. There's still a glimmer of hope.
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 429
The cost of competing in the Southern Premier Lge may encourage more than one voluntary relegation.
Hungerford, Hendon and possibly Harrow & A.n.other could be in that category.
Hayes & Yeading have appointed Andy Leese as their new manager - with his solid experience and good player contacts, so they may produce an end of season rally.
It would be a tremendous achievement if Harrow could avoid the bottom four places - but these days is the Club more suited to Isthmian South Central with the Club's attendances and level of funding ?
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Re: Fantasy land
Views: 453
I could totally see us taking a voluntary relegation had we stayed up. But if we stay up now, that would be horrendous for the players and staff. My issue with stuff like this is, if you voluntarily go down due to finances, but have no long term plan to improve on that front, you’ll never be that motivated to go up again.
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